San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC

San Jose Earthquakes host Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Avaya Stadium. San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in the table and Nashville SC are 1st, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games San Jose Earthquakes have taken 2 wins and 3 draws (D D W W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 7 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Nashville SC have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (W D L D W). Nashville SC are averaging 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 12 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.57 to 1.49.

Strong xG model (1.57 + 1.49) backed by attacking form. Nashville in excellent attacking form (4-0 win last match), San Jose mid-table. Both teams capable of scoring. Over 1.5 at 82% is conservative given the offensive quality.