Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab
Al-Ittihad FCvs
Al ShababHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al Shabab in the Pro League, kicking off on Friday, 16 October 2026 at Alinma Stadium. Al-Ittihad FC sit 4th in the table and Al Shabab are 13th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.
Over their last 5 league games Al-Ittihad FC have taken 4 wins and 1 draw (W D W W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Al Shabab have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (D D L L D). Al Shabab are averaging 0.9 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 77% at odds of 1.3. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.44 to 1.27.
Al-Ittihad are in good form at home (2 wins in last 3 matches, 1.14 home xG) and face an Al Shabab side prone to conceding. The 0.77 probability for over 1.5 goals is justified by the attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.577%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away71%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.571%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)70%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw68%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away60%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)56%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes56%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.551%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.549%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)44%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No44%
- Home Win · Home40%
- Away Win · Away32%
- Draw · Draw29%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.529%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.523%
- Correct Score · 1-114%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- L@Al-Hilal Saudi FC3-2
- W@Al-Faisaly FC1-3
- WvAl-Fayha2-1
- WvAl-Nassr2-1
- D@Al-Fateh0-0
- WvAl Taawon3-0
- DvAl-Fayha0-0
- L@Al Kholood2-1
- LvAl-Hilal Saudi FC0-2
- D@Al-Hazm1-1
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ittihad FC | 1.71 | 0.86 | 4 |
| Al Shabab | 0.86 | 1.57 | 13 |
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 |  Al-Nassr | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  NEOM | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 16 |
| 6 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +10 | 15 |
| 7 |  Al-Ettifaq | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 |  Al Kholood | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 |  Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Al-Hazm | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 |  Al Khaleej Saihat | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 |  Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 8 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Al-Fayha | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 9 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 |  Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.