Guingamp vs PAU
Guingampvs
PAUHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Guingamp host PAU in the Ligue 2, kicking off on Friday, 16 October 2026 at Stade de Roudourou. Guingamp sit 11th in the table and PAU are 8th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.
Over their last 5 league games Guingamp have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (D D W L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.
Over their last 5 league games PAU have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (L D D L W). PAU are averaging 0.9 scored and 0.9 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.85 to 1.60.
Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Guingamp vs PAU) at 87% based on expected goals of 1.85-1.60.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.587%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)79%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away75%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw68%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes68%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.567%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away57%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)57%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.555%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.545%
- Home Win · Home43%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)43%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.533%
- Away Win · Away32%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No32%
- Draw · Draw25%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.513%
- Correct Score · 1-111%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- LvRED Star FC 931-3
- WvAnnecy2-1
- D@Reims2-2
- DvNantes3-3
- WvDunkerque2-0
- L@Montpellier1-0
- DvSochaux1-1
- D@Rodez2-2
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp | 1.25 | 1.63 | 11 |
| PAU | 0.86 | 0.86 | 8 |
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Saint Etienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 19 |
| 2 |  RED Star FC 93 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 17 |
| 3 |  Montpellier | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 15 |
| 4 |  Reims | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 |  Nancy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 |  Annecy | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Dijon | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 | PAU | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Sochaux | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Metz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Dunkerque | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 |  Nantes | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 |  Grenoble | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 |  Rodez | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 |  Boulogne | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 |  Clermont Foot | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 |  Laval | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Other matches to check
Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.