Serie B20:30Estadio Castelão

Ceara vs Juventude

Cearavs

Juventude

Our pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Under 3.5

85%

Odds 1.18

Match odds

Home / Draw / Away

Ceara

3.23

31%

Draw

2.94

34%

Juventude

2.86

35%

Why this pick

Match analysis

Ceara host Juventude in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Estadio Castelão. Ceara sit 15th in the table and Juventude are 3rd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Ceara have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L W L D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 5 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Juventude have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (D D W L L). Juventude are averaging 1.1 scored and 0.7 conceded per game, keeping 19 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.97 to 1.05.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Ceara vs Juventude) at 85% based on expected goals of 0.97-1.05.

One grid, every market

Market probabilities

Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.585%
Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away69%
Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.567%
Double Chance 12 · Home or Away66%
Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw65%
Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.562%
Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)60%
Both Teams to Score - No · No58%
Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)53%
Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)47%
Both Teams to Score · Yes42%
Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.538%
Away Win · Away35%
Draw · Draw34%
Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.533%
Home Win · Home31%
Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.515%
Correct Score · 1-115%

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

No recent head-to-head meetings on record.

Last 10 matches

Recent form

Ceara · last 6

L@Botafogo SP1-0
WvNovorizontino2-1
D@Fortaleza EC1-1
L@Atletico Goianiense2-1
WvSport Recife2-1
L@Vila Nova2-0

Juventude · last 6

DvSão Bernardo2-2
L@Sport Recife2-1
LvAthletic Club0-2
W@Criciuma0-2
DvAtletico Goianiense2-2
D@Londrina0-0

Per match

Goals for & against

Team	For	Against	Pos.
Ceara	1.07	1.28	15
Juventude	1.07	0.66	3

Standings

Serie B table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	16	6	8	+15	61
2	Novorizontino	33	14	9	7	+31	60
3	Juventude	33	14	8	7	+18	60
4	Fortaleza EC	33	14	9	6	+10	57
5	Criciuma	33	13	8	8	+6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	33	12	10	7	+10	53
7	CRB	33	13	6	10	+4	52
8	Sport Recife	33	11	11	7	+10	51
9	Goias	33	12	6	11	-6	48
10	Operario-PR	33	13	8	8	-1	48
11	Cuiaba	33	10	13	6	+6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	11	8	10	+10	46
13	Athletic Club	33	10	11	8	+1	43
14	Nautico Recife	33	10	8	11	-3	42
15	Ceara	33	9	8	12	-5	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	8	8	13	-1	41
17	Avai	33	8	6	15	-10	36
18	Londrina	33	7	7	16	-7	29
19	America Mineiro	33	4	5	20	-33	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	3	4	22	-55	13