Las Palmas vs Castellón

Las Palmas host Castellón in the Segunda División, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Gran Canaria. Las Palmas sit 15th in the table and Castellón are 3rd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Las Palmas have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (W L D W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Castellón have taken 4 wins and 1 draw (D W W W W). Castellón are averaging 2.0 scored and 0.3 conceded per game, keeping 4 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 86% at odds of 1.16. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.96 to 1.04.

Las Palmas and Castellón combine for only 2.00 expected goals. Castellón's strong form (DWWWW) emphasizes defensive organisation; Under 3.5 is appropriate at 0.86 confidence.