FC Cincinnati vs DC United

FC Cincinnati host DC United in the Major League Soccer, kicking off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at TQL Stadium. FC Cincinnati sit 9th in the table and DC United are 12th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games FC Cincinnati have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (D L L D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games DC United have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (L D W D L). DC United are averaging 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, keeping 6 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.12 to 1.09.

Cincinnati and DC United show nearly identical xG and form patterns—both teams draw frequently and produce limited chances. Under 3.5 is well-supported by the balanced attacking output and defensive stability.