NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard

NEC Nijmegen host Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Stadion de Goffert. NEC Nijmegen sit 11th in the table and Fortuna Sittard are 7th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games NEC Nijmegen have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (L D L D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Fortuna Sittard have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W W L W D). Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.8 scored and 1.9 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 75% at odds of 1.33. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.49 to 1.14.

NEC's strong expected goals at home (1.49) combined with Fortuna's attacking output (1.14 xG away) makes over 1.5 probable at 75%. Both teams lack clean sheet form and have demonstrated ability to create chances. The 75% probability aligns with expected scoring patterns.