Necaxa vs Atlas
Necaxavs
AtlasHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Necaxa host Atlas in the Liga MX, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Estadio Victoria. Necaxa sit 17th in the table and Atlas are 6th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.
Over their last 5 league games Necaxa have taken 2 draws and 3 defeats (D L D L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Atlas have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (W L D L D). Atlas are averaging 1.4 scored and 1.7 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.86 to 1.04.
Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Necaxa vs Atlas) at 87% based on expected goals of 0.86-1.04.
Market probabilities
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.587%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away72%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.570%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away65%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw63%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No61%
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.559%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)58%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)57%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)43%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.541%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes39%
- Away Win · Away37%
- Draw · Draw35%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.530%
- Home Win · Home28%
- Correct Score · 0-017%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.513%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- D@CF Pachuca3-3
- L@Atletico San Luis3-1
- LvPuebla0-1
- D@Tigres UANL1-1
- LvCruz Azul1-3
- DvGuadalajara Chivas1-1
- W@Club Tijuana2-3
- DvU.N.A.M. - Pumas1-1
- DvAtlante FC1-1
- LvClub Queretaro1-3
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 1.11 | 1.78 | 17 |
| Atlas | 1.44 | 1.67 | 6 |
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Toluca | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +10 | 20 |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 13 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Tigres UANL | 11 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Santos Laguna | 11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
Other matches to check
Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.