Groningen vs Ajax

Groningen host Ajax in the Eredivisie, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion. Groningen sit 6th in the table and Ajax are 5th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Groningen have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (L D D W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Ajax have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W L W W D). Ajax are averaging 3.0 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.77 to 1.58.

Ajax maintain higher attacking output (3.0 goals for average) and Groningen's recent 1-5 away loss shows vulnerability. The 83% probability reflects Ajax's quality and Groningen's home disadvantage in this matchup.