Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026. Union Berlin sit 16th in the table and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Union Berlin have taken 1 draw and 3 defeats (D L L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 4.3 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Borussia Dortmund have taken 4 wins (W W W W). Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.3 scored and 0.5 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.72 to 1.82.

Dortmund's xG advantage (1.82 vs 0.72) and superior form strongly favour the away side. Union Berlin's catastrophic defence (0 clean sheets, −4 in last 4 games) and position near relegation make this a clear away-favoured fixture.