Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SVvs
VfB StuttgartHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Volksparkstadion. Hamburger SV sit 12th in the table and VfB Stuttgart are 11th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.
Over their last 4 league games Hamburger SV have taken 1 win and 3 defeats (L L L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.5 goals scored and 3.3 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 4 league games VfB Stuttgart have taken 1 win and 3 defeats (L W L L). VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 0.5 Goals (HT) (Over 0.5 (HT)) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.33 to 3.29.
Statistical model favors Over 0.5 (HT) (Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart) at 87% based on expected goals of 1.33-3.29.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.595%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away89%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)87%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)87%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away86%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.584%
- Away Win · Away75%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes71%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.568%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.532%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No29%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw25%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.516%
- Draw · Draw14%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)13%
- Home Win · Home11%
- Correct Score · 1-38%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.55%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- Wv1. FC Köln2-1
- L@RB Leipzig5-0
- LvFSV Mainz 050-5
- L@Borussia Dortmund2-0
- W@Slovan Bratislava0-3
- LvBorussia Dortmund0-1
- L@1899 Hoffenheim2-1
- WvViking3-1
- Wv1. FC Köln4-1
- L@Bayern München5-1
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 0.5 | 3.25 | 12 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.5 | 2.25 | 11 |
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  1. FC Köln | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 |  FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.