Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
Holstein Kielvs
Hertha BSCHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Holstein Kiel host Hertha BSC in the 2. Bundesliga, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Holstein-Stadion. Holstein Kiel sit 18th in the table and Hertha BSC are 1st, so the visitors come in above their hosts.
Over their last 5 league games Holstein Kiel have taken 2 draws and 3 defeats (L D L D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Hertha BSC have taken 5 wins (W W W W W). Hertha BSC are averaging 2.7 scored and 1.1 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.56 to 1.92.
Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC) at 87% based on expected goals of 1.56-1.92.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.587%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)79%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away76%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away70%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes69%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.568%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)60%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw55%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.554%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.546%
- Away Win · Away45%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)40%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.532%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No31%
- Home Win · Home30%
- Draw · Draw24%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.513%
- Correct Score · 1-110%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- DvVfL Osnabrück1-1
- L@1. FC Heidenheim1-0
- Dv1. FC Nürnberg2-2
- L@1. FC Magdeburg2-0
- W@Dynamo Dresden1-2
- W@VfL Osnabrück1-3
- Wv1. FC Magdeburg2-1
- W@Eintracht Braunschweig3-5
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 1 | 1.57 | 18 |
| Hertha BSC | 2.71 | 1.14 | 1 |
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +10 | 17 |
| 3 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 |  1. FC Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 |  1. FC Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 |  FC St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 |  Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 |  VfL Osnabrück | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  VfL Bochum | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 |  Hannover 96 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 |  SV Darmstadt 98 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 |  SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 |  Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 |  Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.