Valencia vs Athletic Club
Valenciavs
Athletic ClubHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Valencia host Athletic Club in the La Liga, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla. Valencia sit 19th in the table and Athletic Club are 10th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.
Over their last 5 league games Valencia have taken 1 win and 4 defeats (L L L W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Athletic Club have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (L W W D D). Athletic Club are averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.58 to 2.18.
This is a high-xG affair with Athletic's 2.18 expected goals and BTTS at 0.71 probability. Valencia's weak defence and Athletic's attacking prowess make Over 1.5 highly probable.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.590%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)82%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away77%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away73%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.572%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes71%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)65%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.552%
- Away Win · Away50%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw50%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.548%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)35%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No29%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.528%
- Home Win · Home27%
- Draw · Draw23%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.510%
- Correct Score · 1-19%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- D@Racing Santander2-2
- LvReal Sociedad2-3
- W@Alaves0-1
- L@Sevilla1-0
- LvBarcelona0-5
- L@Deportivo La Coruna3-1
- DvAlaves0-0
- DvElche1-1
- WvAtletico Madrid3-0
- W@Celta Vigo0-2
- L@Barcelona2-0
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 0.57 | 1.86 | 19 |
| Athletic Club | 1.17 | 1 | 10 |
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.