Serie B16:15Stadio Danilo Martelli

Mantova vs Palermo

Mantovavs

Palermo

Our pick

Double Chance 1X

Home or Draw

88%

Odds 1.14

Match odds

Home / Draw / Away

Mantova

1.54

65%

Draw

4.55

22%

Palermo

8.33

12%

Why this pick

Match analysis

Mantova host Palermo in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Mantova sit 2nd in the table and Palermo are 1st, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Mantova have taken 3 wins and 2 draws (W W D W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Palermo have taken 4 wins and 1 draw (W W W D W). Palermo are averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 88% at odds of 1.14. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.07 to 0.81.

Mantova's league position (2nd), home xG advantage (2.07 vs 0.81), and recent head-to-head record (5-2 win in September) make this a strong home-favoured bet. Palermo's away record is weak (0.8 xG away).

One grid, every market

Market probabilities

Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw88%
Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)84%
Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.580%
Double Chance 12 · Home or Away78%
Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)73%
Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.567%
Home Win · Home65%
Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.555%
Both Teams to Score · Yes50%
Both Teams to Score - No · No50%
Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.545%
Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away35%
Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.533%
Draw · Draw22%
Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.520%
Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)16%
Away Win · Away12%
Correct Score · 2-012%

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

No recent head-to-head meetings on record.

Last 10 matches

Recent form

Mantova · last 4

DvPisa2-2
WvSampdoria2-0
D@Cesena1-1
WvEmpoli3-1

Palermo · last 4

WvPadova2-1
D@Avellino1-1
WvSampdoria3-1
W@Arezzo2-3

Per match

Goals for & against

Team	For	Against	Pos.
Mantova	2	1	2
Palermo	2	1	1

Standings

Serie B table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	6	4	1	0	+7	16
2	Mantova	6	3	2	0	+7	14
3	Modena	6	3	1	1	+5	13
4	Sudtirol	6	3	2	0	+6	12
5	Ascoli	6	3	1	1	+3	11
6	Avellino	6	2	1	2	+4	10
7	Pisa	6	2	1	2	+3	10
8	Benevento	6	2	1	2	+3	10
9	Hellas Verona	6	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Padova	6	2	1	2	-3	7
11	Cesena	6	1	4	0	-1	7
12	Arezzo	6	2	0	3	-7	7
13	Empoli	6	2	0	3	-4	6
14	Virtus Entella	6	1	2	2	+1	6
15	Cremonese	6	1	2	2	-2	6
16	Vicenza Virtus	6	1	2	2	-6	5
17	Carrarese	6	0	1	4	-2	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	1	3	-7	4
19	Catanzaro	6	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Juve Stabia	6	1	2	2	-3	2