Carrarese vs Modena

Carrarese host Modena in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi. Carrarese sit 17th in the table and Modena are 3rd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Carrarese have taken 1 draw and 4 defeats (L D L L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Modena have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W W L D W). Modena are averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.71 to 1.03.

Carrarese are struggling badly in attack (0.2 home goals) and Modena, while strong, are consistent defensively. This is a low-intensity fixture likely to finish below 3.5 goals.