Cesena vs Avellino

Cesena host Avellino in the Serie B, kicking off on Sunday, 18 October 2026 at Dino Manuzzi. Cesena sit 11th in the table and Avellino are 6th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Cesena have taken 1 win and 4 draws (D W D D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Avellino have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L W W D L). Avellino are averaging 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.78 to 1.22.

Cesena's consistent attacking output and lack of clean sheets, combined with Avellino's offensive capability (1.22 xG), suggests a goals-laden match. BTTS probability 0.60 reinforces the over line.