Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor

Fenerbahçe host Alanyaspor in the Süper Lig, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu. Fenerbahçe sit 4th in the table and Alanyaspor are 6th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Fenerbahçe have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W W L D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Alanyaspor have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W L W D W). Alanyaspor are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.99 to 1.07.

Fenerbahçe's exceptional home xG (2.17) and recent 6-0 and 8-0 victories are offset by fixture congestion. Alanyaspor offers weak resistance but the fixture density creates underperformance risk.