ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd
ST Johnstonevs
Dundee UtdHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
ST Johnstone host Dundee Utd in the Premiership, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at McDiarmid Park. ST Johnstone sit 5th in the table and Dundee Utd are 6th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.
Over their last 5 league games ST Johnstone have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (L D W L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Dundee Utd have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L W L D W). Dundee Utd are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 78% at odds of 1.28. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.63 to 1.16.
Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd) at 78% based on expected goals of 1.63-1.16.
Market probabilities
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.578%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw74%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away72%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)72%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.569%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)65%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes57%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away53%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.553%
- Home Win · Home47%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.547%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No43%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)35%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.531%
- Draw · Draw28%
- Away Win · Away26%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.522%
- Correct Score · 1-113%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- W@Aberdeen0-1
- DvFalkirk1-1
- LvCeltic0-1
- WvHibernian2-1
- D@Dundee1-1
- L@Heart Of Midlothian2-1
- W@ST Mirren0-3
- DvFalkirk1-1
- L@Motherwell3-0
- W@Kilmarnock0-4
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 1.29 | 1.43 | 5 |
| Dundee Utd | 1.29 | 1.57 | 6 |
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 |  Rangers | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 |  Dundee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 |  ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 |  Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 5 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.