Championship15:00Carrow Road

Norwich vs Portsmouth

Norwichvs

Portsmouth

Our pick

Double Chance 1X

Home or Draw

77%

Odds 1.3

Match odds

Home / Draw / Away

Norwich

2.04

49%

Draw

3.57

28%

Portsmouth

4.35

23%

Why this pick

Match analysis

Norwich host Portsmouth in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Carrow Road. Norwich sit 20th in the table and Portsmouth are 16th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Norwich have taken 2 wins and 3 defeats (L W W L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Portsmouth have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (L L W D D). Portsmouth are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 77% at odds of 1.3. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.63 to 1.07.

Norwich at home with 1.63 xG and reasonable defensive record (2.13 conceded/game average) supports the home-or-draw thesis. Portsmouth's recent mixed form offers limited away threat.

One grid, every market

Market probabilities

Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw77%
Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.577%
Double Chance 12 · Home or Away72%
Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.571%
Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)70%
Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)68%
Both Teams to Score · Yes54%
Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away51%
Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.551%
Home Win · Home49%
Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.549%
Both Teams to Score - No · No46%
Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)32%
Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.529%
Draw · Draw28%
Away Win · Away23%
Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.523%
Correct Score · 1-113%

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

No recent head-to-head meetings on record.

Last 10 matches

Recent form

Norwich · last 6

LvSouthampton0-1
LvBolton3-4
L@Middlesbrough4-3
WvBirmingham2-1
W@Sheffield Utd1-3
L@Stoke City1-0

Portsmouth · last 6

WvSheffield Utd3-2
L@Southampton1-0
DvBlackburn2-2
D@Charlton0-0
WvCardiff2-0
LvDerby0-2

Per match

Goals for & against

Team	For	Against	Pos.
Norwich	2	2.13	20
Portsmouth	1.29	1.43	16

Standings

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	5	2	1	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	1	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	4	3	1	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	2	5	1	+6	17
5	QPR	10	3	4	1	+6	17
6	West Brom	10	4	2	2	+2	17
7	Southampton	10	4	2	2	+11	16
8	Stoke City	10	4	1	3	+1	16
9	Blackburn	10	2	3	3	+2	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	1	+2	14
11	Millwall	10	3	2	3	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	1	3	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	3	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	3	1	4	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	2	3	3	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	2	2	3	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	4	2	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	3	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	1	4	3	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	5	-3	9
21	Burnley	10	0	4	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	4	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	2	5	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	6	-12	4