Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd
Bristol Cityvs
Sheffield UtdHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
Bristol City host Sheffield Utd in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Ashton Gate Stadium. Bristol City sit 12th in the table and Sheffield Utd are 15th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.
Over their last 5 league games Bristol City have taken 3 wins and 2 defeats (W W L L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.
Over their last 5 league games Sheffield Utd have taken 2 wins and 3 defeats (W L W L L). Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.1 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.79 to 1.24.
Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd) at 85% based on expected goals of 0.79-1.24.
Market probabilities
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.585%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away78%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away67%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)67%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.567%
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.562%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No60%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)60%
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw55%
- Away Win · Away45%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes40%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.538%
- Draw · Draw33%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)33%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.533%
- Home Win · Home22%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.515%
- Correct Score · 0-015%
Last 10 meetings
No recent head-to-head meetings on record.
Recent form
- LvBlackburn0-1
- WvWatford1-0
- LvLincoln0-1
- L@Southampton4-1
- W@Burnley1-2
- W@Preston1-3
- L@Portsmouth3-2
- L@Stoke City2-1
- LvWolves0-1
- W@Blackburn1-2
- LvNorwich1-3
- WvBolton3-2
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 1.38 | 1.5 | 12 |
| Sheffield Utd | 1.13 | 1.38 | 15 |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 23 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  QPR | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Stoke City | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Blackburn | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Charlton | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 |  Bolton | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 |  Portsmouth | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 |  Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 |  Cardiff | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 |  Burnley | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
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Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.