Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II

Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II in the Eredivisie, kicking off on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel. Sparta Rotterdam sit 14th in the table and Willem II are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Sparta Rotterdam have taken 2 draws and 3 defeats (L D L L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Willem II have taken 1 draw and 4 defeats (L D L L L). Willem II are averaging 0.9 scored and 2.9 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 86% at odds of 1.16. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.30 to 1.02.

Sparta dominates: home advantage, 2.3 xG, strong form, and 0.65 win probability. Willem II concedes 2.86 per game away. Home or Draw is reliable.