Chaves vs Vizela

Chaves host Vizela in the Segunda Liga, kicking off on Friday, 23 October 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Chaves. Chaves sit 17th in the table and Vizela are 8th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Chaves have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (D L W L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Vizela have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (D W W D L). Vizela are averaging 1.0 scored and 0.9 conceded per game, keeping 4 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 4 wins for Chaves, 3 for Vizela and 2 draws, averaging 2.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.34 to 0.70.

Chaves and Vizela combine for just 2.04 xG. Both teams show defensive stability with Vizela particularly resilient (4 clean sheets). The fixture lacks the attacking impetus for over 3.5 goals.