Puebla vs Monterrey

Puebla host Monterrey in the Liga MX, kicking off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. Puebla sit 12th in the table and Monterrey are 8th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Puebla have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats (W L W L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Monterrey have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (L D W L D). Monterrey are averaging 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for Puebla, 6 for Monterrey and 3 draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 88% at odds of 1.14. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.89 to 0.97.

Both teams show modest attacking threat with combined expected goals under 1.9. Puebla's weak home output and Monterrey's inconsistent away form point to a low-scoring affair well below 3.5 goals.