Toluca vs Club Tijuana

Toluca host Club Tijuana in the Liga MX, kicking off on Thursday, 22 October 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca sit 2nd in the table and Club Tijuana are 10th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Toluca have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (W L D L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Club Tijuana have taken 3 draws and 2 defeats (L D L D D). Club Tijuana are averaging 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 4 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 6 wins for Toluca, 2 for Club Tijuana and 2 draws, averaging 3.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 78% at odds of 1.28. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.49 to 0.95.

Toluca hold a 4-rest-day advantage and are clear favourites at home with superior attacking and defensive metrics. Tijuana's 5-match winless run and dismal away output make a Toluca win or draw highly probable.