Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa

Guadalajara Chivas host Necaxa in the Liga MX, kicking off on Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at Estadio Akron. Guadalajara Chivas sit 4th in the table and Necaxa are 17th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Guadalajara Chivas have taken 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat (W D L D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Necaxa have taken 1 draw and 4 defeats (L L L D L). Necaxa are averaging 1.3 scored and 2.1 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 7 wins for Guadalajara Chivas, 2 for Necaxa and 1 draw, averaging 2.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 3.15 to 0.59.

Guadalajara are commanding favourites at home with overwhelming expected goals superiority (3.15 vs 0.59). Necaxa are struggling badly in 17th place with no clean sheets and concede heavily on the road. The double chance covers the likely outcome decisively.