Necaxa vs FC Juarez

Necaxa host FC Juarez in the Liga MX, kicking off on Saturday, 24 October 2026 at Estadio Victoria. Necaxa sit 17th in the table and FC Juarez are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Necaxa have taken 1 draw and 4 defeats (L L L D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games FC Juarez have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L W L D L). FC Juarez are averaging 0.7 scored and 2.6 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Necaxa, 1 for FC Juarez and 5 draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 2.5 Goals (Over 2.5) as the pick, rated 43% at odds of 2.33. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.52 to 0.86.

Statistical model favors Over 2.5 (Necaxa vs FC Juarez) at 43% based on expected goals of 1.52-0.86.