Modena vs Avellino

Modena host Avellino in the Serie B, kicking off on Sunday, 6 September 2026 at Stadio Alberto Braglia. Modena sit 1st in the table and Avellino are 8th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Modena have taken 2 wins (W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Avellino have taken 1 win and 1 defeat (L W). Avellino are averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 2 meetings have produced 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Avellino and 1 draw, averaging 1.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 86% at odds of 1.16. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.48 to 0.61.

Modena's dominance in Serie B—league leaders with an exceptional home defensive record—combined with substantial rest makes a home result highly likely. Avellino's attacking weakness away from home (0 away goals average) further supports the home or draw selection.