Alaves vs Osasuna

Alaves host Osasuna in the La Liga, kicking off on Sunday, 6 September 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza. Alaves sit 4th in the table and Osasuna are 5th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 3 league games Alaves have taken 2 wins and 1 draw (W D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Osasuna have taken 2 wins and 1 draw (D W W). Osasuna are averaging 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 3 wins for Alaves, 4 for Osasuna and 3 draws, averaging 2.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 75% at odds of 1.33. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.36 to 1.24.

Both teams have shown defensive stability but moderate attacking threat. Over 1.5 is moderately supported by xG and recent scoring patterns.