AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis

AEK Athens FC host Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Allwyn Arena. AEK Athens FC sit 5th in the table and Aris Thessalonikis are 3rd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 2 league games AEK Athens FC have taken 1 win and 1 draw (W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Aris Thessalonikis have taken 2 wins (W W). Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 2.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 5 wins for AEK Athens FC, 0 for Aris Thessalonikis and 4 draws, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.21 to 0.54.

AEK Athens has conceded only 0.5 goals per game at home while generating modest attacking threat. Aris has shown defensive solidity with no clean sheets but low average goals conceded. The fixture supports the model's strong Under 3.5 conviction.