Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock

Aberdeen host Kilmarnock in the Premiership, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Pittodrie Stadium. Aberdeen sit 10th in the table and Kilmarnock are 12th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Aberdeen have taken 1 win and 3 defeats (W L L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Kilmarnock have taken 4 defeats (L L L L). Kilmarnock are averaging 1.0 scored and 3.5 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 6 wins for Aberdeen, 4 for Kilmarnock and 0 draws, averaging 2.2 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 75% at odds of 1.33. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.16 to 1.46.

Despite Kilmarnock's poor recent form (0-1, 0-4), Aberdeen's attacking capability and low rest favour multiple goals. The 0.75 confidence reflects a moderately open fixture.