Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

Charleroi host Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Charleroi sit 1st in the table and Union St. Gilloise are 4th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Charleroi have taken 4 wins (W W W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Union St. Gilloise have taken 3 wins and 1 draw (W D W W). Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.8 scored and 0.3 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 0 wins for Charleroi, 8 for Union St. Gilloise and 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.83 to 1.32.

Under 3.5 at 83% confidence reflects relatively low combined expected goals. Union's weakness on the road and Charleroi's home solidity point toward a tighter match than xG for both teams in isolation might suggest.