Saint Etienne vs Montpellier

Saint Etienne host Montpellier in the Ligue 2, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Saint Etienne sit 1st in the table and Montpellier are 4th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Saint Etienne have taken 4 wins (W W W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 3.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Montpellier have taken 2 wins and 2 draws (D W W D). Montpellier are averaging 0.8 scored and 0.3 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 7 wins for Saint Etienne, 2 for Montpellier and 0 draws, averaging 2.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Draw (Draw) as the pick, rated 42% at odds of 2.38. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.65 to 0.68.

Statistical model favors Draw (Saint Etienne vs Montpellier) at 42% based on expected goals of 0.65-0.68.