Carrarese vs Empoli

Carrarese host Empoli in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Stadio dei Marmi. Carrarese sit 14th in the table and Empoli are 11th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 2 league games Carrarese have taken 1 draw and 1 defeat (L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Empoli have taken 1 win and 1 defeat (W L). Empoli are averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 2 meetings have produced 1 win for Carrarese, 0 for Empoli and 1 draw, averaging 3.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.86 to 0.92.

Carrarese's home advantage and xG superiority (1.86 vs 0.92) support Home or Draw strongly. Empoli have won only one of their last two away fixtures and face a motivated home side.