Sudtirol vs Catanzaro

Sudtirol host Catanzaro in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso. Sudtirol sit 7th in the table and Catanzaro are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Sudtirol have taken 1 win and 1 draw (W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Catanzaro have taken 2 defeats (L L). Catanzaro are averaging 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 6 meetings have produced 1 win for Sudtirol, 2 for Catanzaro and 3 draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 89% at odds of 1.12. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.50 to 1.46.

Sudtirol's weak home expected goals (0.5) and Catanzaro's attacking advantage create strong draw-or-away foundation. Despite Catanzaro's recent loss, their 18th-place status doesn't negate Sudtirol's fundamental attacking weakness at home.