Stoke City vs Charlton

Stoke City host Charlton in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Bet365 Stadium. Stoke City sit 22nd in the table and Charlton are 3rd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Stoke City have taken 1 win and 3 defeats (L L L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Charlton have taken 3 wins and 1 draw (W W W D). Charlton are averaging 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 4 meetings have produced 2 wins for Stoke City, 2 for Charlton and 0 draws, averaging 3.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.20 to 1.13.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Stoke City vs Charlton) at 79% based on expected goals of 1.20-1.13.