1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund

1899 Hoffenheim host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at SNP Arena. 1899 Hoffenheim sit 12th in the table and Borussia Dortmund are 5th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 1 league game 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1 defeat (L). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 1 league game Borussia Dortmund have taken 1 win (W). Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.0 scored and 0.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 2 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 7 for Borussia Dortmund and 1 draw, averaging 2.9 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.86 to 1.21.

Despite balanced match dynamics, expected goals are low (0.86 home, 1.21 away). Dortmund's defensive solidity and Hoffenheim's recent form suggest a low-scoring game is likely.