Brighton vs Leeds

Brighton host Leeds in the Premier League, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Amex Stadium. Brighton sit 9th in the table and Leeds are 8th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 2 league games Brighton have taken 1 win and 1 defeat (W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 3.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Leeds have taken 1 win and 1 draw (W D). Leeds are averaging 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Brighton, 2 for Leeds and 3 draws, averaging 1.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.53 to 0.93.

Brighton are clear favourites with a xG advantage and proven attacking threat. The Double Chance 1X at 0.79 reflects Brighton's dominance while acknowledging Leeds' defensive stability.