Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Newcastle host Bournemouth in the Premier League, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at St. James' Park. Newcastle sit 6th in the table and Bournemouth are 14th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Newcastle have taken 1 win and 1 draw (D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Bournemouth have taken 1 draw and 1 defeat (L D). Bournemouth are averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 1 win for Newcastle, 3 for Bournemouth and 5 draws, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.77 to 1.67.

Bournemouth's clear expected-goals advantage and Newcastle's recent loss to Tottenham (0-2) reinforce the draw-or-away case. Newcastle's recent clean sheet as away team doesn't offset their poor overall expected output at home.