Athletic Club vs Vila Nova

Athletic Club host Vila Nova in the Serie B, kicking off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at Estadio Joaquim Portugal. Athletic Club sit 13th in the table and Vila Nova are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Athletic Club have taken 2 wins and 3 defeats (W W L L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 6 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Vila Nova have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (L W W D W). Vila Nova are averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 8 clean sheets so far.

Their last 3 meetings have produced 0 wins for Athletic Club, 1 for Vila Nova and 2 draws, averaging 1.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.65 to 1.18.

Athletic Club generates 1.65 xG at home while Vila Nova has conceded 1.0 xG away per game. The 0.79 probability for Over 1.5 is well-supported by the expected goals and recent form—Athletic won 2-1 away last time out, and Vila Nova, despite their league position (2nd), average only 0.44 goals away from home.