Las Palmas vs Leganes

Las Palmas host Leganes in the Segunda División, kicking off on Friday, 4 September 2026 at Estadio de Gran Canaria. Las Palmas sit 7th in the table and Leganes are 3rd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 3 league games Las Palmas have taken 2 wins and 1 defeat (W W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Leganes have taken 2 wins and 1 draw (D W W). Leganes are averaging 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Las Palmas, 4 for Leganes and 1 draw, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.70 to 0.29.

Las Palmas dominates with 72% win probability and 1.7 xG at home. Leganes' 0.29 away xG reflects their attacking frailty. The 95% double chance probability is conservative.