VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart4-1
1. FC KölnHome / Draw / Away
Match analysis
VfB Stuttgart host 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Friday, 4 September 2026 at MHPArena. VfB Stuttgart sit 18th in the table and 1. FC Köln are 7th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.
Over their last 1 league game VfB Stuttgart have taken 1 defeat (L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 5.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.
Over their last 1 league game 1. FC Köln have taken 1 win (W). 1. FC Köln are averaging 3.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.
Their last 10 meetings have produced 6 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for 1. FC Köln and 2 draws, averaging 2.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.
Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Home Win (Home) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.97 to 0.60.
Statistical model favors Home (VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln) at 84% based on expected goals of 2.97-0.60.
Market probabilities
- Double Chance 1X · Home or Draw96%
- Draw No Bet (Home) · Home (DNB)95%
- Double Chance 12 · Home or Away88%
- Over 1.5 Goals · Over 1.588%
- Home Win · Home84%
- Over 0.5 Goals (HT) · Over 0.5 (HT)80%
- Over 2.5 Goals · Over 2.569%
- Both Teams to Score - No · No57%
- Under 3.5 Goals · Under 3.552%
- Over 3.5 Goals · Over 3.548%
- Both Teams to Score · Yes43%
- Under 2.5 Goals · Under 2.531%
- Double Chance X2 · Draw or Away16%
- Correct Score · 2-013%
- Draw · Draw12%
- Under 1.5 Goals · Under 1.512%
- Draw No Bet (Away) · Away (DNB)5%
- Away Win · Away4%
Last 10 meetings
- WVfB Stuttgart3 - 114/02/20261. FC KölnL
- L1. FC Köln1 - 228/09/2025VfB StuttgartW
- DVfB Stuttgart1 - 124/02/20241. FC KölnD
- L1. FC Köln0 - 230/09/2023VfB StuttgartW
- WVfB Stuttgart3 - 018/02/20231. FC KölnL
- L1. FC Köln2 - 419/11/2022VfB StuttgartW
- D1. FC Köln0 - 028/08/2022VfB StuttgartD
- WVfB Stuttgart2 - 114/05/20221. FC KölnL
- W1. FC Köln1 - 019/12/2021VfB StuttgartL
- LVfB Stuttgart0 - 227/10/20211. FC KölnW
Recent form
- L@
Bayern München1 - 5 - W@
Hansa Rostock4 - 0 - L@
Fulham0 - 1 - Wv
Everton3 - 1 - Dv
Paris FC2 - 2 - W@
Kickers Offenbach8 - 1 - W@
Hollenbach5 - 0 - W@
Balingen7 - 0 - L@Bayern München0 - 3
- D@
Eintracht Frankfurt2 - 2
- Wv
1899 Hoffenheim3 - 2 - W@
Würzburger Kickers2 - 1 - Wv
Real Sociedad2 - 1 - Dv
Hertha BSC2 - 2 - W@
Bergisch Gladbach8 - 0 - L@Bayern München1 - 5
- Lv
1. FC Heidenheim1 - 3 - D@
Union Berlin2 - 2 - Lv
Bayer Leverkusen1 - 2 - D@
FC St. Pauli1 - 1
Goals for & against
| Team | For | Against | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 1. FC Köln | 3 | 2 | 7 |
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 |  FC Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 |  Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 |  SV Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 |  1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 |  Hamburger SV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 |  VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates, capped at 92% confidence, never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.