Real Betis vs Real Madrid

Real Betis host Real Madrid in the La Liga, kicking off on Friday, 4 September 2026 at Estadio de La Cartuja. Real Betis sit 7th in the table and Real Madrid are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 3 league games Real Betis have taken 2 wins and 1 defeat (W W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Real Madrid have taken 3 wins (W W W). Real Madrid are averaging 3.3 scored and 0.7 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for Real Betis, 4 for Real Madrid and 5 draws, averaging 1.9 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.05 to 0.80.

Real Madrid's injury list is extensive (Eder Militao, Endrick, Rodrygo, F. Mendy, A. Tchouameni absent), and only 5 rest days limits squad freshness. Their 0.8 away xG is suppressed. Betis' 1.05 home xG and 37% BTTS probability support the under despite Real Madrid's excellent league position.