Toulouse vs Lille

Toulouse host Lille in the Ligue 1, kicking off on Thursday, 3 September 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse. Toulouse sit 16th in the table and Lille are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 3 league games Toulouse have taken 1 draw and 2 defeats (L D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Lille have taken 2 wins and 1 draw (W D W). Lille are averaging 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 2 wins for Toulouse, 7 for Lille and 1 draw, averaging 3.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.21 to 1.79.

Toulouse is clearly outmatched: generating just 0.21 xG at home and conceding 2 per game, while Lille has established attacking threat away from home. The 97% backing for Draw or Away is justified by the fixture's imbalance.