Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Real Sociedad host Celta Vigo in the La Liga, kicking off on Thursday, 3 September 2026 at Anoeta. Real Sociedad sit 11th in the table and Celta Vigo are 16th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Real Sociedad have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L L W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Celta Vigo have taken 2 draws and 2 defeats (D L L D). Celta Vigo are averaging 0.3 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Real Sociedad, 2 for Celta Vigo and 3 draws, averaging 2.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.62 to 2.12.

Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo both possess attacking capability and defensive vulnerabilities, creating a high-probability multi-goal fixture. The 0.9 probability of Over 1.5 reflects a likely open match despite both teams' recent struggles.